Don't Pick the Preakness - Pick Four

Unlike the Derby and the Belmont Stakes, the Preakness rarely produces long shot winners of the magnitude of Mine That Bird. In fact, in the last 25 years the race has been rather chalky. The biggest Preakness upset was 2006 winner Bernardini (12 to 1) who benefited from the tragic breakdown of Barbaro. And during the last quarter of a century the median odds for the winning horse is 3.1 to 1. In other words, half of the horses that won the Preakness during this time had odds of 3 to 1 or less. You have to go back to Deputed Testimony (14 to 1) in 1983 to find a winner with odds higher than 12 to 1. This is all to say that win tickets on the Preakness will not result in any big scores. It’s also unlikely that intra-race exotics will produce any high five-figure payouts, except perhaps the Super High Five. That’s why perhaps the best bet of the day may be the Late Pick Four.

To start, the pool is a guaranteed $1,000,000. Second, if you happen to be a subscriber to YouBet, they will kick in their own $10,000 for those who play the Pick Four on their service. By the way, a very savvy marketing ploy. So here’s a suggestions for how to play the late Pick Four on Preakness Day.

Race 9: Woodward Stakes

#8 Affirmatif will be the odds on favorite, but this is not the type of race to make a stand. # 1 Heros Image shows he can win on the lead and from off the pace and should not be left off the ticket. #4 Beacon Hill Road should be coming late if the pace is hot.

Race 10: Maryland Sprint Handicap

For a sprint, this race does not possess a lot of speed. The race can be stolen and the possible thieves are #1 West Coast Flier, #2 Grand Traverse, #7 Celtic Innis and #8 Ravalo.

Race 11: Dixie Stakes

The entry of Proudinsky and Musketier will be the likely favorites, but it’s not a sure thing. Add to the ticket the following horses that have shown in the past that they can get it done: #3 Parading, #4 Kiss the Kid, #7 Wesley and #10 Just as Well.

Race 12: Preakness Stakes

It’s the Preakness, so the favorite needs to be on the ticket. If you think Mine That Bird was a fluke, then the horses that were second best at the Derby were #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem and #3 Musket Man. I give a slight edge to Papa Clem over Musket Man. Also, one new shooter should be on the ticket; that’s Big Drama.

Here’s the ticket, good luck!

1, 4, 8 with 1, 2, 7, 8 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10 with 1, 7, 9, 13 for $240.00

Just Another Race for Three-year Olds

At this time every year, hundreds of racing websites are filled with tons of analysis and angles on the picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. What many tend to forget is the Derby is just another race for three years olds with only three major differences.

1. None have ever raced at 10 furlongs and many never will again
2. None have ever been carried 126 pounds and many never will again
3. None have ever been in a 20-horse race, and all never will again.

Many factors go into handicapping races for 3yos, but there are three that have a larger impact: speed figures, workouts and closing fractions. So like any good handicapper method, let’s start by eliminating the horses that have little chance based on their recent starts.

You should eliminate any horse that did not finish within four length of the winner in its final prep race. It’s unlike that these horses are going to improve enough, compared with the better horses in the race to be competitive. That means the following are cut:

• Join in the Dance
• Atomic Rain
• Nowhere to Hide
• Flying Private

For speed figures, look at the last race and include any horses (excluding the ones on the elimination list) that are within 10 points of the top figures. To be a bit contrarian, try using Equibase figures . That means the first cut of contenders includes:

• Pioneer of the Nile (117)
• Chocolate Candy (116)
• I Want Revenge (116)
• Mr. Hot Stuff (114)
• West Side Bernie (114)
• Friesan Fire (112)
• Dunkirk (111)
• Papa Clem (111)
• Musket Man (110)
• Summer Bird (109)

For a race of this distance, good long workouts (6 furlongs of more) since the last prep race are a plus. Of the 10 contenders, that narrows the list down to six.

• Musket Man
• Mr. Hot Stuff
• Friesan Fire
• Papa Clem
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird

Lastly, narrow this list down to three by taking the three horses with the best closing fractions in their last prep race.

• Friesan Fire
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird

Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird may be nice longshots on an exotic ticket, but Friesan Fire is the choice.

Wagering Suggestions:

• $20 WP #6
• 1$ EX 6,11,17 with 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,14,15,16,17
• 1$ EX 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,15,16,17 with 6, 11, 17

Good Luck on Saturday!

Maryland Racing: A Canary in the Coal Mine

The racing industry would be wise to pay close attention to the goings-on in Maryland as legislators try to get the horseracing back in the barn. Not even the sliver bullet of slot machines may be enough to ward off the demise of a once proud and prosperous enterprise – Maryland Racing. With Magna Entertainment in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the fate of the Laurel Park, Pimlico in the balance, Maryland is trying to devise a way to use state funds to prop up the only thing of real racing value left - The Preakness.

Governor O’Malley signed into legislation an emergency bill allowing the state to exercise eminent domain of the Pimlico Race Course and all right associated with the Preakness as well as the other racing properties of the Maryland Jockey Club. The state may be able to legislate that The Preakness stay put, but it cannot do that same for the horse breeders in the state who have been making a steady exodus to greener pasture for the past decade.

Unlike AIG, CitiBank and the other struggling financial institutions, horse racing in Maryland and any other states across the country isn’t too big to fail. But it’s one thing when a track like Great Lakes Downs closes and quite another when the second jewel of Racing’s Triple Crown is about to fall from its setting. Exhibit A – this year’s Pimlico meets has been reduced from 31 to 20 racing days in order to maintain a respectable daily purse structure.

Neighboring tracks in Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are fairing much better because slots, which make up the casino portion of the gambling amalgam known as racinos, are subsidizing the racing. And given the dominance of slots, perhaps the term racino should be replaced by “casino-racing”, because when you go there you “can see no racing”.

And this is the problem industry refuses to see. The slot revenues that are apportioned to horseracing have been a boon to the tracks and the horsemen, but it has done little to bring in new customers or significantly grow track handle. In fact, it may be having the opposite effect. A 2007 Baltimore Sun article on this subject indicated that after the first six month of slots at Philadelphia Park betting was down 20% at the track, and betting on live races at Delaware Park is down 40% since slots were introduced back in 1996.

Without the benefit for slot revenues, many tracks that are trumpeting success would look a lot like the state of racing in Maryland. If horseracing wants to grow, then it’s going to have to learn to stand on its own four legs as it competes for its piece of the gambling pie. And if you don’t think state governments won’t let the industry fail, than I have just two words for you – General Motors.