Don't Pick the Preakness - Pick Four

Unlike the Derby and the Belmont Stakes, the Preakness rarely produces long shot winners of the magnitude of Mine That Bird. In fact, in the last 25 years the race has been rather chalky. The biggest Preakness upset was 2006 winner Bernardini (12 to 1) who benefited from the tragic breakdown of Barbaro. And during the last quarter of a century the median odds for the winning horse is 3.1 to 1. In other words, half of the horses that won the Preakness during this time had odds of 3 to 1 or less. You have to go back to Deputed Testimony (14 to 1) in 1983 to find a winner with odds higher than 12 to 1. This is all to say that win tickets on the Preakness will not result in any big scores. It’s also unlikely that intra-race exotics will produce any high five-figure payouts, except perhaps the Super High Five. That’s why perhaps the best bet of the day may be the Late Pick Four.

To start, the pool is a guaranteed $1,000,000. Second, if you happen to be a subscriber to YouBet, they will kick in their own $10,000 for those who play the Pick Four on their service. By the way, a very savvy marketing ploy. So here’s a suggestions for how to play the late Pick Four on Preakness Day.

Race 9: Woodward Stakes

#8 Affirmatif will be the odds on favorite, but this is not the type of race to make a stand. # 1 Heros Image shows he can win on the lead and from off the pace and should not be left off the ticket. #4 Beacon Hill Road should be coming late if the pace is hot.

Race 10: Maryland Sprint Handicap

For a sprint, this race does not possess a lot of speed. The race can be stolen and the possible thieves are #1 West Coast Flier, #2 Grand Traverse, #7 Celtic Innis and #8 Ravalo.

Race 11: Dixie Stakes

The entry of Proudinsky and Musketier will be the likely favorites, but it’s not a sure thing. Add to the ticket the following horses that have shown in the past that they can get it done: #3 Parading, #4 Kiss the Kid, #7 Wesley and #10 Just as Well.

Race 12: Preakness Stakes

It’s the Preakness, so the favorite needs to be on the ticket. If you think Mine That Bird was a fluke, then the horses that were second best at the Derby were #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem and #3 Musket Man. I give a slight edge to Papa Clem over Musket Man. Also, one new shooter should be on the ticket; that’s Big Drama.

Here’s the ticket, good luck!

1, 4, 8 with 1, 2, 7, 8 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10 with 1, 7, 9, 13 for $240.00