Just Another Race for Three-year Olds

At this time every year, hundreds of racing websites are filled with tons of analysis and angles on the picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. What many tend to forget is the Derby is just another race for three years olds with only three major differences.

1. None have ever raced at 10 furlongs and many never will again
2. None have ever been carried 126 pounds and many never will again
3. None have ever been in a 20-horse race, and all never will again.

Many factors go into handicapping races for 3yos, but there are three that have a larger impact: speed figures, workouts and closing fractions. So like any good handicapper method, let’s start by eliminating the horses that have little chance based on their recent starts.

You should eliminate any horse that did not finish within four length of the winner in its final prep race. It’s unlike that these horses are going to improve enough, compared with the better horses in the race to be competitive. That means the following are cut:

• Join in the Dance
• Atomic Rain
• Nowhere to Hide
• Flying Private

For speed figures, look at the last race and include any horses (excluding the ones on the elimination list) that are within 10 points of the top figures. To be a bit contrarian, try using Equibase figures . That means the first cut of contenders includes:

• Pioneer of the Nile (117)
• Chocolate Candy (116)
• I Want Revenge (116)
• Mr. Hot Stuff (114)
• West Side Bernie (114)
• Friesan Fire (112)
• Dunkirk (111)
• Papa Clem (111)
• Musket Man (110)
• Summer Bird (109)

For a race of this distance, good long workouts (6 furlongs of more) since the last prep race are a plus. Of the 10 contenders, that narrows the list down to six.

• Musket Man
• Mr. Hot Stuff
• Friesan Fire
• Papa Clem
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird

Lastly, narrow this list down to three by taking the three horses with the best closing fractions in their last prep race.

• Friesan Fire
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird

Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird may be nice longshots on an exotic ticket, but Friesan Fire is the choice.

Wagering Suggestions:

• $20 WP #6
• 1$ EX 6,11,17 with 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,14,15,16,17
• 1$ EX 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,15,16,17 with 6, 11, 17

Good Luck on Saturday!