Unlike the Derby and the Belmont Stakes, the Preakness rarely produces long shot winners of the magnitude of Mine That Bird. In fact, in the last 25 years the race has been rather chalky. The biggest Preakness upset was 2006 winner Bernardini (12 to 1) who benefited from the tragic breakdown of Barbaro. And during the last quarter of a century the median odds for the winning horse is 3.1 to 1. In other words, half of the horses that won the Preakness during this time had odds of 3 to 1 or less. You have to go back to Deputed Testimony (14 to 1) in 1983 to find a winner with odds higher than 12 to 1. This is all to say that win tickets on the Preakness will not result in any big scores. It’s also unlikely that intra-race exotics will produce any high five-figure payouts, except perhaps the Super High Five. That’s why perhaps the best bet of the day may be the Late Pick Four.
To start, the pool is a guaranteed $1,000,000. Second, if you happen to be a subscriber to YouBet, they will kick in their own $10,000 for those who play the Pick Four on their service. By the way, a very savvy marketing ploy. So here’s a suggestions for how to play the late Pick Four on Preakness Day.
Race 9: Woodward Stakes
#8 Affirmatif will be the odds on favorite, but this is not the type of race to make a stand. # 1 Heros Image shows he can win on the lead and from off the pace and should not be left off the ticket. #4 Beacon Hill Road should be coming late if the pace is hot.
Race 10: Maryland Sprint Handicap
For a sprint, this race does not possess a lot of speed. The race can be stolen and the possible thieves are #1 West Coast Flier, #2 Grand Traverse, #7 Celtic Innis and #8 Ravalo.
Race 11: Dixie Stakes
The entry of Proudinsky and Musketier will be the likely favorites, but it’s not a sure thing. Add to the ticket the following horses that have shown in the past that they can get it done: #3 Parading, #4 Kiss the Kid, #7 Wesley and #10 Just as Well.
Race 12: Preakness Stakes
It’s the Preakness, so the favorite needs to be on the ticket. If you think Mine That Bird was a fluke, then the horses that were second best at the Derby were #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem and #3 Musket Man. I give a slight edge to Papa Clem over Musket Man. Also, one new shooter should be on the ticket; that’s Big Drama.
Here’s the ticket, good luck!
1, 4, 8 with 1, 2, 7, 8 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10 with 1, 7, 9, 13 for $240.00
Friday, May 15, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Just Another Race for Three-year Olds
At this time every year, hundreds of racing websites are filled with tons of analysis and angles on the picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. What many tend to forget is the Derby is just another race for three years olds with only three major differences.
1. None have ever raced at 10 furlongs and many never will again
2. None have ever been carried 126 pounds and many never will again
3. None have ever been in a 20-horse race, and all never will again.
Many factors go into handicapping races for 3yos, but there are three that have a larger impact: speed figures, workouts and closing fractions. So like any good handicapper method, let’s start by eliminating the horses that have little chance based on their recent starts.
You should eliminate any horse that did not finish within four length of the winner in its final prep race. It’s unlike that these horses are going to improve enough, compared with the better horses in the race to be competitive. That means the following are cut:
• Join in the Dance
• Atomic Rain
• Nowhere to Hide
• Flying Private
For speed figures, look at the last race and include any horses (excluding the ones on the elimination list) that are within 10 points of the top figures. To be a bit contrarian, try using Equibase figures . That means the first cut of contenders includes:
• Pioneer of the Nile (117)
• Chocolate Candy (116)
• I Want Revenge (116)
• Mr. Hot Stuff (114)
• West Side Bernie (114)
• Friesan Fire (112)
• Dunkirk (111)
• Papa Clem (111)
• Musket Man (110)
• Summer Bird (109)
For a race of this distance, good long workouts (6 furlongs of more) since the last prep race are a plus. Of the 10 contenders, that narrows the list down to six.
• Musket Man
• Mr. Hot Stuff
• Friesan Fire
• Papa Clem
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird
Lastly, narrow this list down to three by taking the three horses with the best closing fractions in their last prep race.
• Friesan Fire
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird
Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird may be nice longshots on an exotic ticket, but Friesan Fire is the choice.
Wagering Suggestions:
• $20 WP #6
• 1$ EX 6,11,17 with 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,14,15,16,17
• 1$ EX 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,15,16,17 with 6, 11, 17
Good Luck on Saturday!
1. None have ever raced at 10 furlongs and many never will again
2. None have ever been carried 126 pounds and many never will again
3. None have ever been in a 20-horse race, and all never will again.
Many factors go into handicapping races for 3yos, but there are three that have a larger impact: speed figures, workouts and closing fractions. So like any good handicapper method, let’s start by eliminating the horses that have little chance based on their recent starts.
You should eliminate any horse that did not finish within four length of the winner in its final prep race. It’s unlike that these horses are going to improve enough, compared with the better horses in the race to be competitive. That means the following are cut:
• Join in the Dance
• Atomic Rain
• Nowhere to Hide
• Flying Private
For speed figures, look at the last race and include any horses (excluding the ones on the elimination list) that are within 10 points of the top figures. To be a bit contrarian, try using Equibase figures . That means the first cut of contenders includes:
• Pioneer of the Nile (117)
• Chocolate Candy (116)
• I Want Revenge (116)
• Mr. Hot Stuff (114)
• West Side Bernie (114)
• Friesan Fire (112)
• Dunkirk (111)
• Papa Clem (111)
• Musket Man (110)
• Summer Bird (109)
For a race of this distance, good long workouts (6 furlongs of more) since the last prep race are a plus. Of the 10 contenders, that narrows the list down to six.
• Musket Man
• Mr. Hot Stuff
• Friesan Fire
• Papa Clem
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird
Lastly, narrow this list down to three by taking the three horses with the best closing fractions in their last prep race.
• Friesan Fire
• Chocolate Candy
• Summer Bird
Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird may be nice longshots on an exotic ticket, but Friesan Fire is the choice.
Wagering Suggestions:
• $20 WP #6
• 1$ EX 6,11,17 with 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,14,15,16,17
• 1$ EX 1,2,3,6,7,11,13,15,16,17 with 6, 11, 17
Good Luck on Saturday!
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Maryland Racing: A Canary in the Coal Mine
The racing industry would be wise to pay close attention to the goings-on in Maryland as legislators try to get the horseracing back in the barn. Not even the sliver bullet of slot machines may be enough to ward off the demise of a once proud and prosperous enterprise – Maryland Racing. With Magna Entertainment in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the fate of the Laurel Park, Pimlico in the balance, Maryland is trying to devise a way to use state funds to prop up the only thing of real racing value left - The Preakness.
Governor O’Malley signed into legislation an emergency bill allowing the state to exercise eminent domain of the Pimlico Race Course and all right associated with the Preakness as well as the other racing properties of the Maryland Jockey Club. The state may be able to legislate that The Preakness stay put, but it cannot do that same for the horse breeders in the state who have been making a steady exodus to greener pasture for the past decade.
Unlike AIG, CitiBank and the other struggling financial institutions, horse racing in Maryland and any other states across the country isn’t too big to fail. But it’s one thing when a track like Great Lakes Downs closes and quite another when the second jewel of Racing’s Triple Crown is about to fall from its setting. Exhibit A – this year’s Pimlico meets has been reduced from 31 to 20 racing days in order to maintain a respectable daily purse structure.
Neighboring tracks in Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are fairing much better because slots, which make up the casino portion of the gambling amalgam known as racinos, are subsidizing the racing. And given the dominance of slots, perhaps the term racino should be replaced by “casino-racing”, because when you go there you “can see no racing”.
And this is the problem industry refuses to see. The slot revenues that are apportioned to horseracing have been a boon to the tracks and the horsemen, but it has done little to bring in new customers or significantly grow track handle. In fact, it may be having the opposite effect. A 2007 Baltimore Sun article on this subject indicated that after the first six month of slots at Philadelphia Park betting was down 20% at the track, and betting on live races at Delaware Park is down 40% since slots were introduced back in 1996.
Without the benefit for slot revenues, many tracks that are trumpeting success would look a lot like the state of racing in Maryland. If horseracing wants to grow, then it’s going to have to learn to stand on its own four legs as it competes for its piece of the gambling pie. And if you don’t think state governments won’t let the industry fail, than I have just two words for you – General Motors.
Governor O’Malley signed into legislation an emergency bill allowing the state to exercise eminent domain of the Pimlico Race Course and all right associated with the Preakness as well as the other racing properties of the Maryland Jockey Club. The state may be able to legislate that The Preakness stay put, but it cannot do that same for the horse breeders in the state who have been making a steady exodus to greener pasture for the past decade.
Unlike AIG, CitiBank and the other struggling financial institutions, horse racing in Maryland and any other states across the country isn’t too big to fail. But it’s one thing when a track like Great Lakes Downs closes and quite another when the second jewel of Racing’s Triple Crown is about to fall from its setting. Exhibit A – this year’s Pimlico meets has been reduced from 31 to 20 racing days in order to maintain a respectable daily purse structure.
Neighboring tracks in Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are fairing much better because slots, which make up the casino portion of the gambling amalgam known as racinos, are subsidizing the racing. And given the dominance of slots, perhaps the term racino should be replaced by “casino-racing”, because when you go there you “can see no racing”.
And this is the problem industry refuses to see. The slot revenues that are apportioned to horseracing have been a boon to the tracks and the horsemen, but it has done little to bring in new customers or significantly grow track handle. In fact, it may be having the opposite effect. A 2007 Baltimore Sun article on this subject indicated that after the first six month of slots at Philadelphia Park betting was down 20% at the track, and betting on live races at Delaware Park is down 40% since slots were introduced back in 1996.
Without the benefit for slot revenues, many tracks that are trumpeting success would look a lot like the state of racing in Maryland. If horseracing wants to grow, then it’s going to have to learn to stand on its own four legs as it competes for its piece of the gambling pie. And if you don’t think state governments won’t let the industry fail, than I have just two words for you – General Motors.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
A Second Take on Takeouts
There has been a lot of chatter recently about track takeout. The knee-jerk response is that the takeout is too high, and as a result, the two-dollar bettor is slowly going broke or leaving the game while the big bettors are wagering through rebate shops getting as much as 7% on every dollar wagered. But what many horseplayers fail to appreciate is that tracks get a relatively small portion of the takeout. For example, in California about 73% of the takeout is out of the track’s control.
Some suggest that reducing this tax on the bettor not only keeps more players in the game through increasing the churn, but also attracts new players, which in turn increases wagering pools and as the saying goes: you’ll make it up in volume. Well, let’s suppose a track has a handle of $1M per day with a takeout of 20%. Then the takeout is $200K per day. Now suppose the takeout was reduced to 10%, then the track would have to handle $2M per day to maintain its takeout. If this is the only track with a 10% takeout, then it may attract enough bettors from other tracks, but if this move is successful, then more tracks will follow suit. And once enough tracks had done so, where will the extra revenue come from? Bettors are not going to start doubling down, and slot players in the racinos will not be racing to the windows. And don’t count on the big money players. The rebate shops are not going to give up their best customers without a fight. And also there’s the unintended consequence of limiting wagers from off-site locations. This is what happened in 2007 when Ellis Park had a 4% takeout for the Pick 4. Sportsbooks in Vegas weren’t accepting bets because the 3% fee they were required to pay to carry the signal left only a 1% margin to cover their cost.
The argument of lower takeout is a straw man; if takeout was such an overpowering factor in the mind of horseplayers, then why do exotic wagers account for roughly 70%of all monies wagered on horse racing. The takeout for WPS is normally 17% - 18%, while the takeout for exotic wagers are mostly 25% or higher. Smart players will tell you that’s because there’s more value to be found in these wagers. And why is there more value, because the overwhelming majority of players in these pools are just looking for a big score – to heck with takeout.
In the end, the great takeout debate is less about keeping the two-dollar player at the track and more about the big bettors getting just a little more edge on the game. If you’re a player pushing a half-million dollars through the windows per year, then just a 2% reduction in the takeout puts another $10,000.00 in your pocket. As tracks do a better job catering to their high-end customers with their own version of rebates and incentives, you will hear less about high takeout. After all, it’s cold hard cash that wins the hearts and minds of horseplayers.
Some suggest that reducing this tax on the bettor not only keeps more players in the game through increasing the churn, but also attracts new players, which in turn increases wagering pools and as the saying goes: you’ll make it up in volume. Well, let’s suppose a track has a handle of $1M per day with a takeout of 20%. Then the takeout is $200K per day. Now suppose the takeout was reduced to 10%, then the track would have to handle $2M per day to maintain its takeout. If this is the only track with a 10% takeout, then it may attract enough bettors from other tracks, but if this move is successful, then more tracks will follow suit. And once enough tracks had done so, where will the extra revenue come from? Bettors are not going to start doubling down, and slot players in the racinos will not be racing to the windows. And don’t count on the big money players. The rebate shops are not going to give up their best customers without a fight. And also there’s the unintended consequence of limiting wagers from off-site locations. This is what happened in 2007 when Ellis Park had a 4% takeout for the Pick 4. Sportsbooks in Vegas weren’t accepting bets because the 3% fee they were required to pay to carry the signal left only a 1% margin to cover their cost.
The argument of lower takeout is a straw man; if takeout was such an overpowering factor in the mind of horseplayers, then why do exotic wagers account for roughly 70%of all monies wagered on horse racing. The takeout for WPS is normally 17% - 18%, while the takeout for exotic wagers are mostly 25% or higher. Smart players will tell you that’s because there’s more value to be found in these wagers. And why is there more value, because the overwhelming majority of players in these pools are just looking for a big score – to heck with takeout.
In the end, the great takeout debate is less about keeping the two-dollar player at the track and more about the big bettors getting just a little more edge on the game. If you’re a player pushing a half-million dollars through the windows per year, then just a 2% reduction in the takeout puts another $10,000.00 in your pocket. As tracks do a better job catering to their high-end customers with their own version of rebates and incentives, you will hear less about high takeout. After all, it’s cold hard cash that wins the hearts and minds of horseplayers.
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